M.Sc Thesis

M.Sc StudentDavidov Valery
SubjectAn Info-Gap Approach to Allocating Intercepting Missiles
against Attacking Rockets and Missiles
DepartmentDepartment of Mechanical Engineering
Supervisor PROFESSOR EMERITUS Yakov Ben-Haim
Full Thesis text - in Hebrew Full thesis text - Hebrew Version


Today there are many systems that are designed for intercepting attacking missiles and rockets, using defending missiles. We can also see significant developments in this area due to the technological and numerical growth of this kind of threat. Systems of this kind are very sophisticated and modern, but at the same time they have diverse uncertainties. Some of these uncertainties can be recognized in the basic assumptions which the systems use and others in their different sensors and their errors.

The basic models of such systems do not address these uncertainties, and therefore they are not robust against them. This fact can significantly reduce the performance and reliability of these models, which could cause failure in the intercepting systems and an inability to protect strategic assets and human life.

In this work we will use info-gap decision theory to address these uncertainties. With info-gap theory we identify info-gaps and then analyze the robustness of the system to these info-gaps. With the robustness functions and values we can develop a decision making process that takes into account the different uncertainties we identify in the system and its environment.

In any system of this kind there are a number of sub-systems, where one of the main sub-systems is responsible for the allocation of the defending missiles against the different attackers. This sub-system will determine which intercepting missile will be allocated to which attacking rocket or missile, based on various parameters such as the location, speed and the angle of the attacker. The model should make a quick decision and also one that will be well founded in light of the different circumstances. This sub-system, that allocates the defenders, has many sensors that give information about the attackers, and with this information it calculates the kill probability of an attacker with each of the defenders. These probabilities are processed and the sub-system determines the ideal allocation plan against the attackers. Additional considerations can be taken into account and these are different in every system.

In this work, we will discuss our research on a decision making model that determines the allocation plan of defending missiles against attackers accounting for both probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainty. We extended one of the common probabilistic methods to determine the allocation plan against several attackers. We developed an info-gap approach that incorporates probabilistic calculations and then makes the decision while using non-probabilistic robustness calculations.

Further work discusses the model's basic probabilistic assumption of statistical independence, and its effects on the model and the decision making process. Finally, we discuss a method of calculating a single kill probability, in a scenario of one defender against one attacker, while exploring uncertainties in the kinematic parameters of the scenario. Then we will discuss the robustness of the probability calculation and introduce a way to use those to contribute to the decision making processes that determines the allocation plan against a salvo attack.