|M.Sc Student||Brickner Emri|
|Subject||Evacuation in a Tsunami Prone Area: Bat-Galim; Haifa as Case|
|Department||Department of Architecture and Town Planning||Supervisors||Professor Michelle Portman|
|Professor Pnina Plaut|
|Dr. Amos Salmon|
|Full Thesis text - in Hebrew|
Evacuation is the most efficient measure by which to save lives in the case of a tsunami. Recently, it has been concluded that Israel too is at risk of tsunami impact, and a national preparation and response policy has been established. Nonetheless, as this study shows, there are still gaps in the national tsunami preparation policy: there is no current method by which to evaluate the total evacuation time; there are no tools by which to assess quantitatively the factors that affect evacuation; and there are no data on how statutory urban planning influences mass evacuation.
In light of the above policy gaps the purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of potential planning measures and urban characteristics on evacuation from tsunami. Vulnerability, evacuation time and route, and the effectiveness of land-use planning as risk reduction measures are evaluated.
The research consists of: 1) a semi-quantitative spatial risk analysis ; 2) analytical evacuation model based on a road network analysis taking the 'Least Cost Distance' approach. 3) analysis on how statutory plans and other measures will or are affecting evacuation.
The findings of the first stage reveal that the Bat-Galim neighborhood is at the highest risk of tsunami in Haifa city. It has the lowest mobility and lowest vertical evacuation potential. At the second stage, it was found that the average full evacuation time of the neighborhood is 20 minutes, not including the initial response time. It was found that in the case of a local tsunami, there is not enough time to evacuate all the neighborhood population. The findings of the third stage are that conservation and development aspects in the statutory plans have a considerable influence on evacuation. A specific block to evacuation was detected in a city plan that limits the number of floors to below the minimum required for vertical evacuation. This clearly counters the major finding from the second stage that recommends implementation of vertical evacuation.
Based on those findings it is suggested that further effort is required in order to evaluate response and evacuation time on the local and personal level due to their significance for the total evacuation timeline and computable early-warning and evacuation planning policy. A comprehensive approach may find a conflict between urban coastal conservation needs and evacuation requirements. The study suggests that the design of evacuation models should be performed in light of the question "Is there enough time to evacuate?" and not "How long it will take?" This can be achieved, as in this research, by calculating an evacuation time amplitude using optimal to suboptimal scenarios in comparison with the hazard factor. The current work contributes to research in its innovation in Israel, and the development of a comprehensive integrative decision-making support tool relating to both physical and non-physical factors.