M.Sc Thesis

M.Sc StudentAranovich Faina
SubjectMethodology for Uncertainty-Level Estimation in Project
Scheduling Management with the Info-Gap Approach
DepartmentDepartment of Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisors PROFESSOR EMERITUS Avraham Shtub


The goal of this thesis is to develop for the info-gap approach for assessment robustness of projects with uncertain activity duration: (a) a determination process of relative uncertainty of project activities; and (b) an implementation algorithm.

In many projects the uncertainty is the main factor affecting project performance and its final success. In the face of severe lack of information, the info gap approach assesses the reliability of a project schedule using the robustness concept for projects with activity duration uncertainty. In the info-gap approach determination of relative uncertainty of activities with the parameter called uncertainty weights enables one to focus on critical uncertainty points. In previous work the uncertainty weights were set intuitively according to a verbal definition. There are many cases in which it is hard or even impossible to use the intuitive method. In addition formerly the emphasis was on explaining the main trends of the info gap approach rather than to develop an implementation algorithm.

In the frame of the research the uncertainty weights determination process was developed. The process uses the new proposed method called “by definition” for calculation of uncertainty weights. This is the alternative to the “intuitive” method proposed before. Comparison of these methods: “intuitive” and “by definition” was done experimentally and discussed. In addition a flow chart for helping to understand the implementation of the info gap approach methodology for assessing the robustness of the project scheduling was developed. 

The research contributes to the info gap approach for assessment of robustness of projects with uncertain activity duration - and thus to the science of project management and to the info gap approach in general.