The aim of the current research is to examine the effect
of alarms on individuals’ perceptions of risk. In a preliminary study,
questionnaires were handed out to inhabitants of Sderot, close to the
installation and deployment of an alarm system against rockets. The preliminary
study indicates a decreased number of visits to the city after the new alarm
system was deployed. Three studies tested alternative explanations for this
observation in a controlled lab environment. According to the “Contingent
expectancy” hypothesis, the effect of an alarm is equal to the effect of an
immediate result with the same expectancy (e.g. Perry et Al., 2002). The alarm
system decreased the tendency for visiting Sderot since it introduced frequent
punishments. According to the “Attention to other results” Hypothesis, the
negative effect of the alarm stems from the fact that the alarm makes the bad
results of others more salient to the individual thus decreasing the tendency
to visit Sderot. The third and weakest hypothesis assumes that the effect of
the alarm is contingent on the possibility to benefit from the alarm. Thus
alarms will reduce risk taking only if the individuals noting the alarm will
find it hard to benefit from the information.
