|M.Sc Student||Cohen Ronen|
|Subject||Investigation of Car Availability in Israel|
|Department||Department of Architecture and Town Planning||Supervisor||Professor Shlomo Bekhor|
|Full Thesis text - in Hebrew|
Motorization level constitutes an important component in explaining a population’s spatial activity system and its travel characteristics. Car ownership is a necessary input for various transportation models, particularly in disaggregate models that need more specific information about household behavior. In most cases, data for transportation planning are directly obtained from general indices such as motorization level and average household size.
The current research analyzes the variables that impact household vehicle availability in Israel, based on two recent transportation surveys in the Haifa metropolitan area (in 1996 and 2006). The approach of the thesis is to analyze data from conventional large-scale surveys, in order to reach statistically significant conclusions. The data was further used to estimate disaggregate vehicle availability models.
The results show that the number of license holders per household is the most significant variable for determining the level of vehicle availability in Israeli households. This variable has not been found to be significant in many models used in developed countries, apparently due to the fact that in Israel, the percentage of license holders has not reached the saturation point. In contrast, two explanatory variables found in literature, population density and transit level of service, were not found to be significant (population density) or reliable (transit level of service) in the models estimated.
The estimated models were checked for transferability in time and the results are consistent. In addition, the thesis presents motorization rate forecasts for 2016 based on the 2006 model. Assuming that the percentage of driver license holders in the population will reach saturation point, other variables will be more significant. Consequently, despite that residential density alone does not significantly contribute to a lower number of household vehicles in the estimated models, in the long term the importance of this variable will increase and consequently become a valuable policy tool for transportation and urban planners.
The existing data did not allow us to properly evaluate the impact of transit level of service on vehicle availability. It seems that until the public transportation does not reach a competitive level compared to private cars, it will not be possible to evaluate the extent of public transportation policies on vehicle availability.