|M.Sc Thesis||Department of Architecture and Town Planning|
|Supervisor:||Prof. Emeritus Shefer Daniel|
The Capacity Land Use Model (CLUM) answers the need for a minimalist approach to assess the effect of transportation on the spatial distribution of activities in a city. As input, CLUM uses the distribution of forecasted activities, but takes into consideration the capacity restraints of the transportation system. Where the intensity of activity infringes on these constraints, the model transfers activity from the city center to other zones. The core of the model - LINKOD-LU sub-model which corrects the O-D table - is based on the LINKOD2 model for updating O-D tables according to traffic counts. LINKOD-LU uses road capacities instead of traffic counts. The direction of transfer is determined by exogenous control. With which the planner designates: (a) potential zones for activity absorption; (b) zones in which such absorption is no longer possible because of various limitations (e.g. zoning restrictions, lack of land, insufficient infrastructure, etc.). If capacity constraints are not violated, the forecast distribution remains intact.
To examine whether CLUM is operational and to test its sensitivity to control variables, data on the forecasted distribution of households and employment in Haifa for the year 1995 were applied. The model showed that the basic forecast of a marked increase in employment in the city center and in residential areas on the city outskirts was found to be impossible to materialize. Empirical tests showed that the model was operational and consistent, with no inexplicable deviations. The control variables were found to be efficient and to fulfill expectations. Since the model results depend totally on, its input - the basic forecast and control (or policy) variables - it is not possible to verify the results. Nevertheless, the model seems to produce reasonable and sensible results, consistent with observed trends in Haifa and other metropolitan areas.