טכניון מכון טכנולוגי לישראל
הטכניון מכון טכנולוגי לישראל - בית הספר ללימודי מוסמכים  
M.Sc Thesis
M.Sc StudentElyash Olga
SubjectMethod for Risk Assessment under High Uncertainties
DepartmentDepartment of Quality Assurance and Reliability
Supervisor Dr. Phineas Dickstein


Abstract

Several weapons used during the recent military conflicts contain depleted uranium. Depleted uranium is radioactive and poisonous. Exposure to sufficiently high levels might be expected to increase the incidence of some cancers and may damage the kidneys. The key question is whether exposures to DU aerosols following the impact of DU-contained munitions are such that the increased incidence of cancer, or the likelihood of kidney damage, are insignificant or are high enough to cause concern. Epidemiological and medical studies failed to determine any correlation between exposure to DU and reported symptoms. In all of these cases, standard Gaussian plume model has been used to estimate the amount of aerosol release. However, a fundamental characteristic of the problem is the instantaneous nature of the release in the atmosphere in the form of a DU aerosol cloud.

This work is devoted to the risk assessment through inhalation of depleted uranium aerosol downwind from the impact of one tank-fired round (e.g. M829A1 round) using Gaussian puff model. Health risk from impact is related to the inhalation of depleted uranium by a theoretical person. Actual measurements of chemical and radioactive contaminations are needed to assess the risk. In this work, a computer simulation is proposed to estimate chemical and radiological risk related to specific exposure scenario.

Finally, it was deduced from the Puff model calculations, that the risks from the inhalation of DU aerosol due a round impact are not significant, and the model suggests no support for possible health-effects.