|M.Sc Student||Nili Maniv|
|Subject||Economic Aspects of Climate Change Effects on Israel's|
|Department||Department of Industrial Engineering and Management||Supervisors||Full Professor Mordechai Shechter|
|Dr. Naomi Zeitouni|
in the Mediterranean Region, like agriculture worldwide, has an intrinsic
relationship with climate. This research considers how climate change may
affect Israel’s agriculture in the future. There are several approaches that
deal with the above question; we focused on the production function approach
which is based on agronomic experiments. Our objective was to determine how
farming would change with expected changes in precipitation patterns. These
changes were estimated via an economic model.
The model expresses the farmers’ problem, which is a maximization problem under a constraint. Farmers maximize their expected net revenue with respect to irrigated water. The quantity of irrigated water used is limited by water quota. A statistical analysis of annual rainfall distribution in Israel over a period of 60 years reveals significant changes in the patterns of the precipitation distribution. Our objective was first to determine how farming changed in the past as the parameters of the precipitation changed. We also checked how farming would change as a result of expected changes in precipitation patterns in the future. Three crops were examined: tomatoes, wheat and lettuce. The results suggest that changes in precipitation parameters in the past increased the aggregated farm sector’s net revenue. For tomatoes and lettuce the increase was less than 1 percent, for wheat 5 percent. In the future we found a decrease in the farm sector’s net revenue. The changes are minute, less than 5 percent. The results imply that there is no significant influence of the patterns of the precipitation distribution on the agricultural sector in Israel.