טכניון מכון טכנולוגי לישראל
הטכניון מכון טכנולוגי לישראל - בית הספר ללימודי מוסמכים  
M.Sc Thesis
M.Sc StudentEylam Gofer
SubjectThe Effectiveness of Precision Guided Munitions in the
Presence of Incomplete BDA
DepartmentDepartment of Industrial Engineering and Management
Supervisor Full Professor Kress Moshe


Abstract

Recent technological innovations in weapon systems and combat support systems have resulted in major changes and advances in military strategy, doctrine and combat theory. One of these changes is triggered by the introduction of precision-guided weapon systems in land combat.

Precision Guided Munitions (PGM) are unmanned self-propelled vehicles aimed to hit a target. While in flight, their trajectory or course is controlled.

Most of the typical ground targets in the battlefield are deployed in clusters that can be engaged by PGM from a long distance (standoff shooting) and with a relatively high efficiency.

However, from examining the results of Operations "Desert Storm" (the second gulf war) and "Allied Forces" (the Kosovo campaign), it seems that the effect of PGMs was not as expected. It is accepted by the military analysts community that two of the reasons for this were:

1.             Target acquisition problem -  difficulties in target acquisition  due to the use of decoys, camouflage and smoke by the enemy;

2.             Lack or misuse of Battle Damage Assessment (BDA). BDA is the timely and accurate estimate of damage resulting from the application of military force, either lethal or non-lethal, against a predetermined objective. Battle damage assessment can be applied to the employment of all types of weapon systems throughout the range of military operations. In many occasions pilots reported that their targets were destroyed, when in fact, they were not.

In this research we use probabilistic models to describe the engagement process of PGMs in the presence of incomplete BDA, in order to analyze and compare several engagement and BDA policies.

The thesis is constructed of three major sections. The first section analyzes the acquisition process of a single PGM. The second section examines the coordinated PGM engagement and various BDA implementations that are relevant to it. The third section examines the autonomous PGM engagement and various BDA implementations that are relevant to this form of engagement.

The results of the analyzed cases indicate that the acquisition process, in particular the probability to identify correctly a non-target, has a dominant effect on the effectiveness of the engagement. Additionally an external BDA supplier (e.g observation team) yields better results than self BDA.